Before the season, SBaSABR posted projected standings based on whatever metrics they use.

Let's take a look at their projections and how well they aged, starting from worst projected record to best! I'll also offer plausible theories to how some were off.

Dallas Drillers

Projected: 33-55

Actual: 32-56

This one was actually pretty close to accurate. The Drillers could get free bases with the best of 'em (2nd in walks and 3rd in HBP), but a .210 batting average means those guys aren't really going to be moving anywhere. Throw in a pitching staff that was poor all year even after some panic trades and...yeah, it wasn't pretty for Dallas. All but five teams had more homers alone than the Drillers had total extra base hits.

Wichita WonderWolves

Projected: 34-54

Actual: 40-48

League-wide expectations were fairly low for Wichita, if I remember correctly, but as the final week of the season began they were still mathematically in it (though they needed a miracle). Their offense was poor, but their pitching limited base traffic despite giving up a slew of home runs, and their defense was the best in the league by wF%. Let's see if Plack's German ninjas can build on the knowledge gained from his first season as a solo GM. The bullpen is the main area that this team struggled in.

Glasgow Unicorns

Projected: 35-53

Actual: 32-56

Another one that was pretty darn close. Having the league's worst ERA and WHIP coupled with the lowest BA and OBP means you're not going to be very good. Speed is nice and great to have, but you can't really utilize it if you're not on the basepaths. Though, they do gain hipster points for making Andrew Velazquez a cult hero before he actually became one in real life. Based and Andypilled.

South Burlington Black Diamonds

Projected: 36-52

Actual: 44-44

Oh, hey, it's my own team. I never forgot where you pegged me, spreadsheet slut.

The Diamonds were basically designed to defy the laws of sabermetrics and it felt like most GMs had no idea what to do with them, I saw us pegged anywhere from "bad" to "borderline elite." The team was mid-pack in offensive K's and walks and dead last in home runs, and the pitching stat was bottom half in K's. The result was a team that was not a sabermetric darling since there were no offensive homers and few defensive K's, but through the league's second-best BA, fourth-best ERA, fifth-best OBP, and tied-for-best WHIP, gutted out the results it needed for the postseason.

Milwaukee Bovines

Projected: 38-50

Actual: 42-46

And then there's the Diamonds' polar opposite. The Bovines offense tended to be very dinger-or-bust, as they were in the bottom two of all other extra-base hits as well as walks. The Cows did indeed hit dongs, but the thing with dinger-or-bust teams is that they tend to be very streaky, and Milwaukee had one bad streak too long. The attack was also a bit too top-heavy, and a late season injury to one of those elite bats, Sam Huff, proved too fatal for them to overcome. Still, Basebally's a manager who's proven capable here and I'm sure this team'll bounce back.

Florida Flamingos

Projected: 38-50

Actual: 39-49

All that trading just to finish almost exactly where SABR had them. With the exception of Clayton Kershaw and the small 30 inning sample of Barstool Bitch, the Death Rotation by and large underperformed; I don't care that Aaron Nola had a gazillion K's when he had an ERA north of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.15, it's style without substance. And when the team's ethos this season was all-pitching-no-offense, you bet this team was basically cooked if the opponent scored like 4 runs. We'll see how this team fares this draft now that they have draft capital to use on offense, and the addition of a proven GM in Zach as co-GM could prove an interesting boost.

Vatican Angels

Projected: 40-48

Actual: 41-47

There's a reason Ryan and I were both high on each other's teams, because the ethos was very similar, and SABR liked neither of us. The main differences where the Diamonds succeeded and Vatican didn't was that the Diamonds hit for a slightly better average, and while the Diamonds had a very good bullpen, the Angels didn't aside, from Cam Hill and Shawn Armstrong. Aside from maybe Triston McKenzie, the starters couldn't make up for it, thanks partially to underperformance from projected ace Zac Gallen.

Big Sky Snow Geese

Projected: 41-47

Actual: 48-40

After back to back wooden spoons, it's very good to see the Snow Geese qualify for the postseason. This team was also not exactly a sabermetric darling - second-last in pitching K's and bottom five in batting walks - but they were effective, thanks to an elite bullpen and balanced offense. One wonders how good this team could've been if Mike Yastrzemski hadn't underperformed all season. Last I heard he was in his home region of New England on I-93.

Las Vegas Bandits

Projected: 41-47

Actual: 51-37

I'm not sure how much platooning played into SABR's methodology, because this Bandits team was very platoony on offense. Guys like Yolmer Sanchez, Andrew Stevenson, and Tony Kemp were virtually unusable against lefties, and were often replaced by guys like Victor Robles and Mark Canha against them. Still, the Bandits led the league in OBP by some margin, but their big strength was pitching. Like Big Sky and South Burlington, they weren't K merchants (third-fewest pitching Ks), but they were effective with the lowest ERA and WHIP. A cynic could point out  their park, though, since the Bandits were 30-14 at home, but just 21-23 on the road, the second worst road mark of any playoff team. I have no idea what the run split was, but that'd be interesting to look at. Still, Reed's one of the best GMs in the league, and made the correct in-season moves to boost his team to a division crown.

Philadelphia Birds of War

Projected: 42-46

Actual: 34-54

Ever since their season 1 pennant, the Birds of War have just sorta been...there. Midpack in most statistics, and very top-heavy where they'll have three or four guys who are elite and the rest is just sorta there. Aside from Jacob deGrom and Conner Menez, the latter of whom was dealt at the deadline, the pitching just wasn't there. The offense was just OK, largely carried by the likes of Machado, Betts, and Bohm. For a team with a lot of talented guys, to finish just two games better than the Drillers and Unicorns, it's got to be disappointing. They underperformed their pythag, but it probably isn't just that considering it was only by two games.

Yukon Moose

Projected: 47-41

Actual: 37-51 and a Toilet Bowl Bye Game 89 loss

For much of the season, the Meese looked good value for that preseason prediction. Until they didn't. The team lost 17 of their last 19, including Game 89 that meant they wouldn't even get a bye in the Toilet Bowl. Where did it go wrong? The bats were just OK, though it definitely had some underperformers like Jeff McNeil, Miguel Rojas, and Willson Contreras. But the main problem was the pitching. An ERA just shy of 5 and a 1.44 just isn't going to get you very far in this league, and when your one reliable arm all season was a relief-2 in Victor Gonzalez...yeah, you're gonna have a bad time.

Denver Zephyr

Projected: 49-39

Actual: 39-49

The nature of the three-true-outcomes team is that of a streakiness. Well, okay, the Zephyr didn't strike out a lot, but they walked (5th most) and went deep (3rd) a bunch. It didn't help matters that after selling at the deadline, the trio of Max Fried, Cesar Valdez, and Randy Arozarena suffered injuries to further punt them out of the hunt. Where Denver went wrong was not just down to streaky offense, though, but rather pitching. For all the whinging about Devin Williams and Cesar Valdez being overused, the Zephyr were bottom 5 in both ERA and WHIP, and aside from Williams, who was dealt at the deadline, no other regular pitcher had an ERA below 3. That level of pitching is not going to get you into the playoffs.

I'm also willing to hear the argument that Foxx got Jack syndrome and traded for the sake of trading instead of to fill needs, but that's a discourse for another time.

West Virginia Black Bears

Projected: 49-39

Actual: 62-26

SABR didn't factor in umpire interference. /j

How the Black Bears made it was simple: all the offense. Outside of home runs, they were top two in the league in virtually all offensive categories. Ronald Acuña is my pick for league MVP after a monster season, and Trea Turner was fantastic too. WV even had some surprise performances by the likes of Robinson Cano, Mark Mathias, and Yan Gomes. Their pitching was decent; though it did lead the league in K's and was 6th in ERA, they were midpack in WHIP. We'll see if they can keep their rigging magic rolling towards a three-peat.

Sao Paulo Parrots

Projected: 51-37

Actual: 37-51 & Toilet Bowl Game 89 Win

Did SABR get caught up in the KeBryan Hayes hype train? Probably. The 11 WAR man did slash .306/.374/.582, but given the expectations put on him...The Parrots' bats were ok, but very top-heavy. Where the team struggled was the run prevention. By wF%, they had the second worst defense in the league; by ERA and WHIP, they were bottom-five in both, and when only a couple bats are pulling their weight it's tough to win games. And when only one GM actually pulled his weight. RIP Joe. They probably would've been one of the favorites for the Toilet Bowl, too, before Domo killed their entire team.

Jakarta Jaguars

Projected: 52-36

Actual: 55-33

Offense. Offense offense offense. Offense. There was not an easy out in this lineup at all. Trout's contact and discipline numbers were down, but he made up for it by tying for the league lead in home runs. Tim Anderson and Alejandro Kirk were both in the hunt for the batting title before late-season injuries. And unlike another all-offense okay-pitching team in West Virginia, this team had an ace that pitched like one in Hyun-jin Ryu. This team could've been even better if Walker Buehler pitched to his ability. But nevertheless, no Game 89 heartbreak this year, a comfortable playoff spot. Another OG finally getting its first playoff berth.

Tokyo Kaiju

Projected: 54-34

Actual: 55-33

The league leader in overperforming their pythag (+6), this was a top-heavy team done right, and SABR nearly had them bang on. And to be fair to the pythag, they did miss Juan Soto for a chunk of the season, which will always bring down run production. Their good hitters, like Paul Goldschmidt, Ramon Urias, Alex Verdugo, dinger machine Bobby Dalbec, and Soto (when healthy), played like it, picking up the slack for a lot of the poorer ones, resulting in a midpack offense.A Cy Young caliber season from Shane Bieber and solid relief performances from Darren O'Day and Yimi Garcia paced a staff that was third in the league in ERA, and the cannon arm of Roberto Perez definitely helped discourage any traffic that reached.

Los Muertos de Monterrey

Projected: 55-33

Actual: 57-31

Burning down the conventions of the starting rotation to the ground was a very bold direction for Diego, but man, did it work. The team's offense was heavily three-true-outcomes, which is streaky by nature, but when you have a 3.89 team ERA and 1.27 WHIP in a hitter's park, you have the run prevention to make it work. The team lost Erasmo Ramirez late in the season and was still very strong, as the likes of Aaron Slegers, Chris Martin, Jesse Hahn and Oliver Perez picked up the slack. A very, very risky teambuilding strategy paid off brilliantly for this team. Oh, by the way, dead last in pitcher Ks. #ValWasRight

Quezon City Questants

Projected: 57-31

Actual: 47-41

From one TTO team to another, though the Questants were only midpack in walks and were actually top-5 in average, so does that really count?

QC was heavily hyped before the season, and I think a big reason they underperformed was the lack of a true plan B on offense. The minute someone on their (very strong) plan A got hurt there was a huge dropoff; guys like Anthony Alford, Taylor Ward, Daulton Varsho and Garrett Hampson were huge drop offs from the likes of Jared Walsh, Jake Marisnick, Travis d'Arnaud and Brandon Lowe. Their pen was also a bit shaky besides Overperformer of the Year candidate Nik Turley, though picking up Shawn Armstrong and Devin Williams at the deadline patched that up. The team did still give up a ton of traffic though (t-5 highest WHIP), and teams were more than happy to run on them.

This team underperformed their Pythagorean by the most on the league (-6), which actually raises a theory from me since it came up with Denver too: for a homer-reliant three-true-outcomes team, is pythagorean really relevant? It's a volatile system that tends to benefit teams that can blow others out but lose close games.