Pulto's Picks: Week 3

So this is something I wanted to do earlier this season, but hadn't had a ton of time to.  Each week I'll do some previews and throw some arbitrary numbers and half-assed analysis around to tell you who I think is gonna win the match ups.  Yes you can theoretically use this for your PD pick 'ems but A) that's lame and B) I don't know why you'd trust me that much.   So without further ado let's get into this week's picks.

Matchup 1: Philadelphia Birds of War @ Florida Flamingos
Philly comes into this one with a respectable 5-3 record having split vs SBB Week 1 and won their Week 2 matchup against Milwaukee.  Florida has struggled out of the gate and only has two wins to their name, though they've played one of the tougher schedules facing off with Jakarta and Big Sky to start the season.

Projected Pitchers
G1: Wainwright vs Turnbull
G2: Flaherty vs Dunn
G3: deGrom vs Houck
G4: Kershaw vs Soroka

I know the game 3 matchup is one I'll have circled for this week.  deGrom went 8 innings, striking out 12 his last outing but came away with a no decision.  Tanner Houck is one of the most hyped up players in the league this season, largely due to his cost.  He picked up his first career win last week with 6.2 clean innings.

Looking at the bats, PBW has Alec Bohm who is leading the batter leaderboards early this season.  He headlines a lineup that sits in the top five of OBP and BA. Power hitters Christian Yelich and Pete Alonso have also had a decent start to the season for PBW.
Florida's batters are just behind Philly with a .247 BA.  They're led by C Kevin Plawecki and UTIL Willi Castro who both sit over .320 at this point in the season.  The bottom half of the order could use some help with RF Cameron Maybin, 3B Alex Bregman, and 2B Jurickson Profar all sitting below .200.

Prediction:
I think that Philadelphia has the edge here in terms of pitching, while batting is pretty even for both teams.  I wouldn't be surprised if Florida gets a split, but I think they're in store for another 1-3 week here.
PBW 3 - 1 FF

Matchup 2: South Burlington Black Diamonds @ Tokyo Kaiju

The Black Diamonds head across the other pond for a showdown in Tokyo.  Both teams are right around .500 in the tightly contested Beasts of the East.  South Burlington has split both series, one at home against Philadelphia and another split series in Quezon City (side note, whoever made the schedule definitely considered travel since QC to Tokyo is far more doable than South Burlington to Tokyo).  The Kaiju split their Week 1 tilt with West Virginia and took home a 3-1 series victory against Wichita in Week 2.

Projected Pitchers
G1: Alcantara vs Bullpen
G2: Bullpen vs Mills
G3: Means vs Bieber
G4: Davies vs Antone

This is another matchup where Game 3 is the battle of aces.  Both pitchers have had two stellar outings so far.  I'll be curious to see how Means fairs outside of the pitcher-friendly SBB ballpark.  The Kaiju are rolling with the SP-0 strategy with Noe Ramirez taking the hill Game 1.  It will be interesting to see how he does and if Tokyo can get a clean inning out of him to start things off.

As one would expect, the Black Diamonds come into this week with one of the lower team SLGs having played 6/8 games in the cavernous Boof Boog Ballpark.  This week will be a good gauge of how they'll perform on the road.  The Kaiju offense has been pretty average so far and they sit within a few spots of the middle of the league.  

Prediction:
I think that this is a pretty even matchup that will hinge a lot on the SBB offense and the bullpen game.  We'll call it a tie.
TIE 2 - 2

Matchup 3: Jakarta Jaguars @ West Virginia Black Bears

The Jaguars (Jaggers? Whichever you call 'em) have been hot so far this season.  They've dropped one game which was basically a Las Vegas slugfest.  Their week one sweep of Florida was pretty impressive as they won three of the games by at least 3 runs.  Meanwhile Cal's Black Bears are one of the several near-.500 teams in BotE.  WV split vs Tokyo and took three games in the split series with Los Muertos.  

Projected Pitchers
G1: D. Garcia vs Lamet
G2: Graterol (Opener) vs Perdomo (Opener)
G3: Ryu vs Hill
G4: Buehler vs Perdomo (Opener)

West Virginia rolls with the double Opener strategy this week.  The pen will likely feature some combination of Gomber and Alzolay following Perdomo with other arms filling in.  The Black Bears have had some short starts from the Lamet/Hill combination and both have 10 or less IP.  The bullpen has carried most of the slack with Gomber and Alzolay leading the team in innings so far.  Jakarta doesn't get a Giolito start this week but Ryu has put up two fantastic starts as well.  The bullpen has mostly been lights out with Chad Smith, Jeffress, Gallegos, Raley, and Justin Wilson combining for 0.00 ERA in 1o combined IP.  

Jakarta boasts four regular starters batting over .300 yet none of them are Mike Trout.  They also have four players with an OPS of over 1.100 (I'm not counting Myles Straw and his 1 AB).  The Jaguars are one of the hottest hitting teams in the league and it's helped them get off to their blistering start.  The Black Bears' roster features some new call ups this week in Ozzie Albies and Yan Gomes as well as trade acquisition Maikel Franco.  All three have a good shot to inject some new life into a lineup that already leads the league in SLG.  This is an interesting matchup of two great offenses that should put up some fireworks this week.

Prediction
I think the bats are pretty evenly matched in this one, with each team near the top of the charts so far.  I think the pitching favors Jakarta, but not enough to warrant a sweep.  I'm gonna call this a win for the Jaguars.
JJG 3 - 1 WV

Matchup 4: Denver Zephyr @ Sao Paulo Parrots

The Zephyr have been an intriguing team to start the season.  They sit at .500 despite leading the league in home runs and being second in the league in runs.  Sao Paulo is the new kids on the block and they've had a bit of a rough start dropping three games in Dallas and then splitting against the Angels in week 2.  They've shown some firepower of their own in a couple games

Projected Pitchers
G1: Brubaker vs Sheffield
G2: Fried vs Bullpen
G3: Yarbrough vs Darvish
G4: TBD vs Urias

Denver gets an interesting week here with three actual starting pitchers going.  Foxx has been quick to hook pitchers this season so I expect 3 or 4 IP out of those first three guys then Devin Williams/Caleb Thielbar to take over.  The revolving door of pitchers hasn't paid dividends this season and the staff ERA is 6.00 on the dot so far.  Sao Paulo doesn't get staff ace German Marquez this week, so they'll have to rely on Darvish and Urias for good starts.  Rookie Justus Sheffield struggled in his only start this season, and a matchup with Denver might not be great for his second go.  

As mentioned before Denver hits the daylights out of the ball.  The SPP park can be kind to hitters so expect more homers this week from the Zephyr.  The issue for them is that aside from homers, they don't have a ton of hits (prime example is Calhoun and Will D Smith both having 6 homers.... but only 7 total hits each).  The Parrots have one of the lowest OPS's in the league even though they sit near the middle of the pack for hits.  This is one of the more lopsided batting matchups that you'll see this week.

Prediction
The batting definitely favors Denver, while I give the pitching edge to Sao Paulo.  I think playing at SPP gives them a bit of an edge here, but not enough to win the series.  I'll call this one a split but it could swing either way if someone has a big week (looking at you Ke'Bryan Hayes).
DEN 2 - 2 SPP
*Note: SPP currently leads series 1-0

Matchup 5: Los Muertos de Monterrey @ Quezon City Questants

So two games of this series have already gone by already and LMM finds themselves up 2-0.  Game 1 was a blowout while Game 2 was much closer with Los Muertos taking a 4-3 win.  Here's some analysis for the rest of the series.

Projected Pitchers
G3: Wisler vs Bauer
G4: Merryweather vs Brault

Diego also is rolling with the openers this season and this week is no different.  Julian Merryweather has 5 starts already and took the mound to start Game 2.  Matt Wisler is in the same boat, having started Game 1.  The strategy has had mixed success so far: Monterrey is up to 7-3 even with one of the higher ERAs in the league.  Quezon City will trot out arguably the best pitcher in the league for Game 3 with Trevor Bauer.  In two starts he's sitting at 2.63 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP.  We'll see if the bullpen strategy can hang with the proven ace, especially in a ballpark like QC.

Los Muertos have mixed it up at the plate this season with 13 players getting an at bat and 11 of those having at least 14 ABs.  Tyler Stephenson has led the attack with a .310/.429/.862 slash line.  Aside from him, Monterrey doesn't have a ton of firepower (yes they scored 11 runs in Game 1 but still).  Most of the team has really solid OBP, but hasn't put the bat on the ball well.  For Quezon City, the bats have been subpar this season.  Two regulars have above a .300 OBP (Hampson and Alford are both at .500 for that).  The top hitters Marcell Ozuna and Jared Walsh have been hitting the daylights out of the ball combining for 9 homers an dboth OPSing over 1.000.

Prediction
Like I said we're two games into this one already and Los Muertos are up 2-0.  Best I can see is a split on the back end with QC taking Game 3 behind Bauer's pitching.
LMM 3 - 1 QC

Matchup 6: Dallas Drillers @ Wichita Wonderwolves

This is an interesting one.  Both teams are 3-5 and in need of a good week to regain momentum.  Dallas comes off a sweep by the Yukon Moose after looking really solid during Week 1.  On the other side of things, Wichita has gone 2-2 and 1-3 in their two series.  A series win for either side would be a big boost here early in the season.

Projected Pitchers
G1: Josh Fleming vs Snell
G2: Dobnak vs Valdez
G3: Bundy vs Cole
G4: Hendricks vs Keuchel

On paper, Wichita has one of the best pitching staffs in the league with these four and Marco Gonzales.  For the most part, the starters have gotten the job done (sans Gonzales).  The pen isn't bad either with Diaz, Trivino, and Gregory Soto all getting some solid innings in.  Dallas has a top-5 ERA and WHIP despite their mediocre record.  The bullpen is a bit thin after a 15 inning romp with Yukon last week, but Kalin likes to push his available arms as far as they can go.  Expect some extended outings from Dallas starters this week.

Moving to the batters, Wichita is headlined by star C Salvador Perez.  This guy gets on base (queue Domo) and sports a .515 OBP.  He's also got 5 homers.  Really solid pick as one of the best defensive Cs in the league as well.  JBJ has had a solid start to the season as well and Harold Castro, despite a mediocre BA, also has an OBP above .375.  These three make up the bulk of the WonderWolves' offense.  Dallas is a small ball focused team and gets a lot of their offense from base hits, walks and the like.  Almost every one of their players has a OBP above .300 which is kinda absurd.

Prediction
This is another pretty even matchup on paper.  I think that Dallas has an edge on pitching.  Expect some low scoring games and maybe more extras.
WWW 2 - 2 DAL

Matchup 7: Las Vegas Bandits @ Big Sky Snow Geese

Vegas comes into this one off of 2 straight 1-3 weeks.  They managed to get one from Jakarta last week which is keeping them out of the cellar.  Big Sky is 6-2 after a Week 1 sweep and a split last week.  The NL West is hotly contested this season.  Here's the matchups (or at least what I expect them to be).

Projected Pitchers
G1: Woodruff vs May
G2: Dunning vs Quantrill
G3: Ian Anderson vs Zeuch
G4: Gonsolin vs Walker

So yeah I'm really winging it with the Big Sky rotation since Zeuch and Maeda have both only made one start.  Regardless this is a matchup of two contrasting pitching staffs.  Big Sky has the lowest ERA in the league (despite the efforts of Tarik Skubal) while Vegas is a touch over 5.  

On the flip side of things, the Bandits get the edge for batting.  Simmons and Stevenson lead the way.  Jason Heyward brings some pop to the lineup to go with Stevenson.  Big Sky has Conforto and Nick Madrigal leading the way for their batters.  There really isn't a whole lot to write home about with either of these teams in terms of batting.

Prediction
With both teams having less-than-stellar batting lines, this one is gonna come down to pitching.  Big Sky has a big advantage in that department and I think it pays off for them in this one.
BSG 4 - 0 LV

Matchup 8: Milwaukee Bovines @ Vatican Angels

Here's another matchup that's now underway as of press time.  Both teams come in at .500.  Milwaukee took 3 of 4 from the Bandits then got their lone win of Week 3 on the road in Philadelphia.  The Angels started the season with a pair of splits against the Moose and the Parrots.  

Projected Pitchers
G1: Montgomery vs Glasnow
G2: Hudson vs Minor
G3: Burnes vs Gallen
G4: Bullpen vs Javier

I like these pitching matchups for both teams.  You'd think there would be some low scoring games but honestly who knows.  Derek Holland somehow has a 54 ERA for Milwaukee and the two Blakes on the Vatican both are sitting at 27 ERA.  So yeah the bullpens and Tyler Glasnow have both gotten touched up a bit.

Milwaukee comes into this one with some big bats.  Judge and Buxton have both hit a couple bombs already.  With a team SLG of .435 there's definitely some pop there.  The Angels struggled to score runs so far, but they've been getting on base a good bit so far.  They'll need to score some more runs to keep up with Milwaukee's offense.

Prediction
I think Milwaukee has the edge here on offense.  With some quality pitching they can win the series and maybe get the sweep.
MKE 3 - 1 VA

Matchup 9: Yukon Moose @ Glasgow Unicorns

This is a matchup of one of the top teams in the league and one of the bottom teams in the league which you'd think would make for an easy prediction.  With our luck we'll get swept or something.

Projected Pitchers
G1: Cueto vs JA Happ
G2: Musgrove vs Nola
G3: Tanaka vs Lopez
G4: Mahle vs Shoemaker

Yukon's pitching has overperformed a bit this season.  Even after a 10 run affair against Dallas, they have the number three ERA in the league.  Musgrove and Tanaka both put in solid starts to start the season.  The bullpen has done just enough to keep things in check as well.  Glasgow's team ERA has been inflated a bit by playing in Denver, but they still are at the bottom half of the league.  Once again signs point to Yukon having the upper hand.

Jose Abreu and Jeff McNeil lead the Moose on offense and Abreu's 5-5 performance last week turned some heads (ignore Game 4 please).  The Moose have had a surprising amount of power even in a pitcher friendly park.  Glasgow's offense is led by Jacoby Jones (sad) and Niko Goodrum (also sad... c'mon Mason why you gotta have all the Tigers bats).  Goodrum leads the team in homers with 4 this season.

Prediction
Like I said it seems like Yukon has the upper hand here but I can't get myself to believe we'll go more than one game without some pitcher chaos.  So I'll call this a split.
YKN 2 - 2 GLA

Anyways that's a wrap on the first edition of Pulto's Picks.  Don't trust me for any of this since I think I contradicted half my picks for PD.