Mock Expansion Draft
With the expansion draft sitting merely two days away, everyone wants answers. How many of their players will be taken, will their #1 guy fall to them, who will they have to be competing against throughout the year. Once the expansion draft passes, teams will finally be able to fill out a draft board with more clarity and trade for any non-protected players that survived the expansion gauntlet.
While both expansion teams appear to have a strategy in place, both are keeping the secret from each other and the rest of the league. Balancing high standard-draft picks, top-talent players, top-value players, and roster-building style will be a juggling act for the expansion GMs. To give the hungry masses something to pore over, here’s a stab at what the expansion draft will look like:
#1. Parrots: Francisco Lindor - Tokyo Kaiju
There’s no juggling act here, this just makes sense. Lindor is easily one of the best shortstops in the league no matter where he plays. An above-average ballpark power ability (very low across the board at the position) mixed with the blazing speed and defensive ability Lindor possesses makes him a monstrous threat all season long. Along with that comes one of the lowest price tags for unprotected players and year-in, year-out consistency that makes up what will likely be a lifelong Parrot. As an added bonus, he will only cost the Sao Paulo club a 5th-round pick. As a response, the Kaiju management will likely walk into the draft with their top four set and begin drafting in the 5th round.
Talent: A-
WAR Value: A+
Park Fit: A-
Long-Term Outlook: A+
Round Value: A+
Additional Protection: None
#2. WonderWolves: Lorenzo Cain - Dallas Drillers
One of the more surprising players left off of a protection list, the Season 3 Gold Glove winner returns with his signature 1e2 lockdown defense and a significantly-improved bat. Cain benefitted from a small sample size in the 2020 season after opting out due to COVID-19. As a result, he won’t be swiping bags like he did in Season 3, but that will be more than made up for by a bump in average and OBP likely over .100 each. Cain is one of the cheapest top-of-position options in the league and, while he won’t rock bombs left and right, gets a huge bump by playing in the new pitcher’s park in Wichita. In fact, by my metric, Cain’s performance will be dead even with Mike Trout with the same park factors. Anyone with the talent level of Mike Trout should be taken instead of a 5th round pick without a single question. The WonderWolves will be getting a major piece for a contention run in Season 4. Dallas will take the opportunity to protect another pitcher as a result, locking down the groundballing Mike Soroka.
Talent: A+
WAR Value: A-
Park Fit: A+
Long-Term Outlook: B-
Round Value: A+
Additional Protection: Mike Soroka
#3. WonderWolves: Gerrit Cole - Denver Zephyr
Our first high pick (2nd round) comes off the board early as Wichita locks down a rotation anchor. The Yankees ace had a spot of trouble with the long ball but that lone wart on the card is offset by the park he’ll be playing in. Cole will be logging plenty of innings as his set-rare POW(6) rating and low OBP against combine for a nightmare for Dinger Central batters in away games. The -2 hold rating also works in the team’s favor as forced small ball will have more trouble manufacturing runs through stolen bases. The perennial Cy Young contender will be a face of the WonderWolves as long as he can keep his IRL production up.
Talent: A
WAR Value: A-
Park Fit: A+
Long-Term Outlook: A+
Round Value: B+
Additional Protection: None
#4. Parrots: Bryce Harper - Philadelphia Birds Of War
One of the more predictable picks here, Harper was left off the protection list in favor of lifelong PBW member Mookie Betts. Joe gets his Phillie, the Parrots only lose a 6th rounder, and Harper will be slugging bombs and gunning down runners in Brazil for a long, long time. The former top prospect checks out as one of the cheapest starting right fielders in the set, so despite the 4.28 WAR cost, Sao Paulo still helps its overall cap situation with this pick while getting an all-star outfielder for a 6th. The Birds Of War have a decision to make on who their 5th man will be, but ultimately, I expect they’ll play the smart long-term game in locking down Corey Seager after a breakout campaign.
Talent: A
WAR Value: A
Park Fit: A
Long-Term Outlook: A
Round Value: A+
Additional Protection: None
#5. Parrots: Dallas Keuchel - Quezon City Questants
Keuchel is one of the ideal fits for the Dinger Central division. No ballpark homers at all mean he’ll be at the top of his game all season long. Yes, he’s a lefty, but Keuchel doesn’t struggle with right-handed bats and can be trusted as a likely workhorse of the staff. The Parrots are the favorite in the Ke’Bryan Hayes lottery and can afford to pay an average price for a SP1/2 after clearing some room with Lindor and Harper. This move still leaves the Parrots with their top 3 picks and a 7th to play with. The Questants will take the opportunity to hold batter-park-value extraordinaire Travis d’Arnaud.
Talent: A
WAR Value: B+
Park Fit: A+
Long-Term Outlook: B-
Round Value: A-
Additional Protection: Travis d’Arnaud
#6. WonderWolves: Raisel Iglesias - Vatican Angels
Most may be surprised in seeing Raisel as the first Angel off the board. He’s not the sexiest name to go as pick number 7, but he checks every box for a need in Wichita. Lockdown closer? Check. Incredibly cheap for an arm at .30 WARa? Check. Dependable as an INJ 1 with a capped max injury? Check. Doesn’t cost a 2nd rounder because Plack already used it to take Cole? Check. Won’t give up walkoff bombs in away games? Check. The Wolves hit big here with a piece that will grant plenty of flexibility in the standard draft.
Talent: A+
WAR Value: A+
Park Fit: B+
Long-Term Outlook: B
Round Value: B+
Additional Protection: None
#7. WonderWolves: Nelson Cruz - Quezon City Questants
QCQ loses another in quick fashion as Plack sneaks in a top-10 bat. Cruz’s power will be slightly dampened by the Wichita stadium, but even despite the maximum ballpark power, he’ll launch plenty of rockets with a number of straight homerun rolls. Wichita will also take a big step in bumping up their away-game record by walking one of baseball’s biggest monsters off the bus each week. Cruz may not help on the defensive end, but with a bat like this, who needs him to? When an early-round talent like this comes at the price of a 4th, you take the talent and run. I predict QCQ to solidify another piece of the league-leading offense by keeping Jason Heyward and his surprising talent this year.
Talent: A+
WAR Value: B+
Park Fit: B
Long-Term Outlook: C+
Round Value: A+
Additional Protection: Jason Heyward
#8. Parrots: Julio Urias - Las Vegas Bandits
Derek and Joe take another opportunity to pad their WAR space in order to take Hayes here. No ballpark homers gives Urias a huge bump in talent and he checks out as one of the cheapest dependable arms out there. By using their third here, the Parrots keep their 7 spot open to play with. As an added bonus, Urias has stood out as a top option the past two sets and could find himself as one of the top pitchers long-term.
Talent: A
WAR Value: A
Park Fit: A+
Long-Term Outlook: A
Round Value: B
Additional Protection: None
#9. Parrots: Marco Gonzales - Philadelphia Birds Of War
What a 1-2-3 for Sao Paulo taken here. While there are some other pitching options on the board, taking from MCast’s crew only costs a 7th where almost any other arm of similar talent would force them to cough up a 2nd. With this, the rotation in Brazil sits reasonably priced with three SP2 or better options who keep the ball in play. Gonzales may not do much as a long-term play, but for the cost of a 7th, who cares? Philly should take the opportunity to strengthen its lineup and does so by protecting Kyle Tucker, possibly sneaking in another lifelong PBW member if he can continue developing.
Talent: A-
WAR Value: A-
Park Fit: A
Long-Term Outlook: C+
Round Value: A+
Additional Protection: Kyle Tucker
#10. WonderWolves: Willson Contreras - Yukon Moose
Contreras won’t light off many bells and whistles, but one of the best-defensive, healthiest, cheapest, strong-side platoon catchers in the game. The only other INJ 1 behind the plate? Tzu-Wei Lin. Contreras’ arm at the dish turns an inconvenient park for batters into a station-to-station nightmare for opposing teams. Not only can his lackluster ability against the occasional lefty be cheaply (if there’s any cost at all) remedied with a platoon, but he’ll come at just a fraction of the cost of other options at catcher where low AB numbers inflate the cost of nearly everyone on the board.
Talent: B
WAR Value: A+
Park Fit: A+
Long-Term Outlook: B+
Round Value: A
Additional Protection: None
#11. WonderWolves: Josh Donaldson - Los Muertos de Monterrey
The path to Ke’Bryan Hayes looks all but blocked at this point. Third base is a position where nearly everyone that can both boost an offense and patrol the hot corner wrapped up tightly. Then again, I did say nearly everyone. Donaldson won’t be the picture of health as an INJ 3, but for the talent he comes in with for nearly every aspect of the game, he’s worth every bit of his 2.7 WAR price and at the cost of only a 7th rounder. As a former MVP, he could also prove to be a long-term steal in this spot once the season gets rolling. As the expansion draft nears a close, Diego opts to keep his remaining assets liquid and won’t make an additional protection. With the number two overall pick, Wichita ends their expansion moves here.
Talent: A
WAR Value: B+
Park Fit: A+
Long-Term Outlook: B-
Round Value: A-
Additional Protection: None
#12. Parrots: Brandon Belt - Vatican Angels
With a decision to make, the Parrots could very well walk into the draft hoping some extra unprotected assets are passed on for picks, but one of only 3 plus-plus options at an an uncharacteristically shallow first-base spot is too hard to pass up. Belt will be showing out on the offensive side, cranking heaters into the rainforest left and right, and bringing an unfair 1e8 to an infield of death that looks to hold Lindor, Hayes, and Belt to back up one of the better pitching staffs in the league. The WAR cost isn’t dirt cheap, but talent that far above the rest of the league at his position is too juicy to pass up. The Parrots can save the space to get league-average production elsewhere.
Talent: A+
WAR Value: B-
Park Fit: A+
Long-Term Outlook: B-
Round Value: B+
Additional Protection: None
The Results:
Sao Paulo Parrots
The Parrots walk out with their big 7 as maybe the top in the league. A 1-2-3 batter’s-park-negating punch in the rotation with Keuchel, Urias, and Gonzales pairs with an infield of death in Lindor, Belt, and the incoming Ke’Bryan Hayes. Throw Bryce Harper in the cleanup spot taking care of greedy runners with a -3 arm and you’ve got a powerhouse in Dinger Central with a few spicy options for surefire keepers in the next set. There’s plenty of cost here, but unless the Parrots completely whiff on every pick the rest of the draft, even below-league-average production from the rest of the roster could lead the the newcomers to the playoffs.
Wichita WonderWolves
Good luck winning games on the road here. In case anyone needed extra reasons not to want to travel to Kansas, LoCain working as a black hole in center while Contreras and Donaldson enforce the law of the pitcher park in the infield means good luck trying to match the Wolves’ who-needs-ballpark-homers offensive power aided by Nelson Cruz who, along with Donaldson, even the playing field when they’re away from home. Did we forget to mention they’ve got Gerrit Cole? They’ve got Gerrit Cole. Throw in maybe the best value closer in the set who doesn’t give up walkoff bombs without a single ballpark homer and Wichita is a force. Oh, and by the way, Plack only spent 20.73 WAR spent and still has the #2 overall pick. That kind of flexibility can bully the board around into sacrificing talent for value while the WonderWolves snatch up top production at every position.